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FMS Digest, v. 1, issues 1-5, February - July 1941
v.1:no.4: Page 6
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Page Six F M Z DIGEST PROBABILITY By Louis Russell Chauvenet Condensed from FRONTIER April, 1941 The quest for the "absolute," which has absorbed the attention of so many of the most reknowned philosophers, seems somewhat comparable to the search of the ancient alchemists for the mythical "Philosophers" stone. The difficulty which has always prevented any real success in this quest is a simple one--the mere fact of the limitations imposed on man by his environmental position in time and space. Principles in general are of two kinds--those thought to be true "of necessity," and those thought to be true from observation and experience, which obviously includes all scientific "laws." If we consider the latter, it can easily be shown that no such principle can be considered absolute unless the observation and experience on which it is based is absolute. We would have to have an experience embracing all the events in the universe during infinity; this is clearly impossible. Our other class, that of a priori truths, is philosophically more interesting. Attempts have been made to show that certain principles must, from their very nature, be true, and these "truths" have been established as "absolutes." These claims suffer from the defect that the "necessity" of some thesis being true is often apparent only to those who support the thesis. Another form of a priori truths is axioms. These are postulates which cannot be proved, but which are, for reasons of convenience, held to be "obviously true." No axiom is anything but a convenient supposition. There is still another division of this class which should be mentioned-- principles which are true by definition. "Truths" of this type are cited as "absolute" with surprising frequency, yet anything true by definition can be reduced to a simple statement of identity, a statement difficult to designate as "absolute truth." These several considerations have led me to conclude that "absolutes" are attainable only by an "absolute being," and as men are not "absolute beings," it is utterly futile for them to attempt the discovery of an "absolute." If, then, the "absolute" is unattainable, what remains as the guiding principle of human life? The conclusion I have reached is that all human actions are guided by probabilities. If this is true, then we have, instead of an Absolute, a probability to seek. No plan made for the future by a human mind is ever based on anything other than probabilities, because the future, however shrewdly guessed, is never accurately known. It is quite probable that the future is rigidly determined, but we cannot hope to ascertain all the factors which determine the future, and it is because of the undetermined factors that our best efforts can only give us probabilities to go on. SINGLETON SUICIDE A HOAX! By Weaver Wright Condensed from FANTASY FICTION FIELD FONO RECORD #1 It seems fandom's most mysterious, lamented, & publicized suicide has turned out to be another Tucker! In other words, kids, we been hoaxt! Earl (Singleton) seems to have let his being alive slip out in the most casual manner, almost as tho he didn't know he was sposed to be dead! I've been told it is now all x to let anyone know Singleton is alive -- xcept Speer & Rothman of DC. This is ridiculous. It would see Milty has had the info for some time: vide his letter in may VoM. Maybe a rogat walks the streets of Wn, maybe the Campbell creature of "Who Goes There?"; anyway, I think it's hi-time Earl Singleton or reasonable fascimile wrote the most sensational article of the season: "Why I died--An Autobiography."
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Page Six F M Z DIGEST PROBABILITY By Louis Russell Chauvenet Condensed from FRONTIER April, 1941 The quest for the "absolute," which has absorbed the attention of so many of the most reknowned philosophers, seems somewhat comparable to the search of the ancient alchemists for the mythical "Philosophers" stone. The difficulty which has always prevented any real success in this quest is a simple one--the mere fact of the limitations imposed on man by his environmental position in time and space. Principles in general are of two kinds--those thought to be true "of necessity," and those thought to be true from observation and experience, which obviously includes all scientific "laws." If we consider the latter, it can easily be shown that no such principle can be considered absolute unless the observation and experience on which it is based is absolute. We would have to have an experience embracing all the events in the universe during infinity; this is clearly impossible. Our other class, that of a priori truths, is philosophically more interesting. Attempts have been made to show that certain principles must, from their very nature, be true, and these "truths" have been established as "absolutes." These claims suffer from the defect that the "necessity" of some thesis being true is often apparent only to those who support the thesis. Another form of a priori truths is axioms. These are postulates which cannot be proved, but which are, for reasons of convenience, held to be "obviously true." No axiom is anything but a convenient supposition. There is still another division of this class which should be mentioned-- principles which are true by definition. "Truths" of this type are cited as "absolute" with surprising frequency, yet anything true by definition can be reduced to a simple statement of identity, a statement difficult to designate as "absolute truth." These several considerations have led me to conclude that "absolutes" are attainable only by an "absolute being," and as men are not "absolute beings," it is utterly futile for them to attempt the discovery of an "absolute." If, then, the "absolute" is unattainable, what remains as the guiding principle of human life? The conclusion I have reached is that all human actions are guided by probabilities. If this is true, then we have, instead of an Absolute, a probability to seek. No plan made for the future by a human mind is ever based on anything other than probabilities, because the future, however shrewdly guessed, is never accurately known. It is quite probable that the future is rigidly determined, but we cannot hope to ascertain all the factors which determine the future, and it is because of the undetermined factors that our best efforts can only give us probabilities to go on. SINGLETON SUICIDE A HOAX! By Weaver Wright Condensed from FANTASY FICTION FIELD FONO RECORD #1 It seems fandom's most mysterious, lamented, & publicized suicide has turned out to be another Tucker! In other words, kids, we been hoaxt! Earl (Singleton) seems to have let his being alive slip out in the most casual manner, almost as tho he didn't know he was sposed to be dead! I've been told it is now all x to let anyone know Singleton is alive -- xcept Speer & Rothman of DC. This is ridiculous. It would see Milty has had the info for some time: vide his letter in may VoM. Maybe a rogat walks the streets of Wn, maybe the Campbell creature of "Who Goes There?"; anyway, I think it's hi-time Earl Singleton or reasonable fascimile wrote the most sensational article of the season: "Why I died--An Autobiography."
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