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Astronaut, v. 1, issue 1, September 1947
Page 7
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Science Article SUNSPOT SWEEPSTAKES By R. S. Richardson THERE IS A HOT CONTEST among certain astronomers as to when the maximum for the present sunspot cycle will occur. Interest is unusually keen, owing to the fact that two rival hypotheses are being tested. One is the old "superposition" hypothesis which attributes the rise and fall of sunspots to a big wave with a period of about 11.1 years plus smaller waves which cause the irregularities in the cycles. The other is the so-caled "outburst" hypothesis, which claims each cycle is a separate solar spasm which has no connection with any that have come before or will follow in the future. But disciples of the outburst hypothesis assert that each cycle has certain defnite regularities that enable its course to be predicted after a few years have elapsed. Here are the predictions of some of the foremost experts. Some base their figures on either the superposition or outburst hypothesis only; others use a kind of combination of the two. The ability to predict sunspot activity in detail would be of some commercial value, owing to its effect on radio and telegraph transmission, which may explain why some employees of the Bell Telephone laboratories have published some papers on the subject recently. Also, within the last two years, enormous and sudden bursts of energy have been detected as emanating from the sun on the 1 - 6 meter band. These indicate the temperature of the solar atmosphere at long wave-lengths is around 1,000,000K. Handicapper System Predicted Time of Sunspot Maximum Probable Odds Waldmeier Outburst 1947.6 0.8 Stewart Outburst 1948.0 3 Stetson ? ? ? ? 1948.2 6 Clayton Superposition 1949 (approx) 15 A. H. Shapley Outburst (?) 1949.6 15 Anderson Superposition 1951 (approx) 20 I consider Waldmeier of Zurich as an odds-on favorite owing to the extreme intensity of sunspot activity recently, which certainly gives every indication of a high quick maximum similar to that which occurred in 1870. Another inside tip which comes direct from the feedbox is that Waldmeier officially determines the time of maximum and the progress of sunspot activity itself, since he recently took over the head job at Zurich of determining the relative sunspot numbers, upon which practically all sunspot statistics are based. These were started by Pofessor Wolf of Zurich in 1849 and have been carried on by the Zurich astronomers without a break ever since. By consulting old astronomical records, Wolf was able to fix relative sunspot numbers as far back as Galileo's first observations in 1611. Somehow it doesn't seem reasonable that Zurich will put maximum over around 1951, although of course they can't change the nubmer of sunspots counted from day to day. THE END
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Science Article SUNSPOT SWEEPSTAKES By R. S. Richardson THERE IS A HOT CONTEST among certain astronomers as to when the maximum for the present sunspot cycle will occur. Interest is unusually keen, owing to the fact that two rival hypotheses are being tested. One is the old "superposition" hypothesis which attributes the rise and fall of sunspots to a big wave with a period of about 11.1 years plus smaller waves which cause the irregularities in the cycles. The other is the so-caled "outburst" hypothesis, which claims each cycle is a separate solar spasm which has no connection with any that have come before or will follow in the future. But disciples of the outburst hypothesis assert that each cycle has certain defnite regularities that enable its course to be predicted after a few years have elapsed. Here are the predictions of some of the foremost experts. Some base their figures on either the superposition or outburst hypothesis only; others use a kind of combination of the two. The ability to predict sunspot activity in detail would be of some commercial value, owing to its effect on radio and telegraph transmission, which may explain why some employees of the Bell Telephone laboratories have published some papers on the subject recently. Also, within the last two years, enormous and sudden bursts of energy have been detected as emanating from the sun on the 1 - 6 meter band. These indicate the temperature of the solar atmosphere at long wave-lengths is around 1,000,000K. Handicapper System Predicted Time of Sunspot Maximum Probable Odds Waldmeier Outburst 1947.6 0.8 Stewart Outburst 1948.0 3 Stetson ? ? ? ? 1948.2 6 Clayton Superposition 1949 (approx) 15 A. H. Shapley Outburst (?) 1949.6 15 Anderson Superposition 1951 (approx) 20 I consider Waldmeier of Zurich as an odds-on favorite owing to the extreme intensity of sunspot activity recently, which certainly gives every indication of a high quick maximum similar to that which occurred in 1870. Another inside tip which comes direct from the feedbox is that Waldmeier officially determines the time of maximum and the progress of sunspot activity itself, since he recently took over the head job at Zurich of determining the relative sunspot numbers, upon which practically all sunspot statistics are based. These were started by Pofessor Wolf of Zurich in 1849 and have been carried on by the Zurich astronomers without a break ever since. By consulting old astronomical records, Wolf was able to fix relative sunspot numbers as far back as Galileo's first observations in 1611. Somehow it doesn't seem reasonable that Zurich will put maximum over around 1951, although of course they can't change the nubmer of sunspots counted from day to day. THE END
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