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Middle Earth various issues, 1967-1968

Page 10

Middle Earth page ten

The Economics of Peace in Vietnam
by Victoria Smith

   New York (LNS) -- One of the surest guarantees that the War in Vietnam can't last much longer is the growing prospect that peace would be profitable to American business. 
   The war is becoming a burden to the economy, according to the economists. Not only is the war hurting the U.S. balance of payments by about $2 billion annually, but consumer spending and some business investments are falling as the war continues. 
   "Vietnam has been a dark cloud hanging over spending," says economist Tilford Gaines of Manufacturers Hanover Trust Company. "Everyone would feel much more in a buying mood if the war were to end," he adds, putting in a pitch for forced consumption. 
   It's not that peace in Vietnam would bring home millions of dollars for domestic programs. In fact, much of the $28 billion spent in Vietnam yearly would go into other kinds of Defense programs. Gaines predicts that the savings in the first fiscal years after a peace settlement would probably not exceed $4 billion. 
   But an end to the war, economists say, would not bring a serious recession, like the one following the Korean War. Nor would unemployment rise much, since American business needs men with the kinds of skills developed in the Army. (There is a severe shortage in some skilled job areas in this country, according to specialists)
   Besides, these young men newly returned from Vietnam, will be expected to marry and become consumers, a crucial factor in a period in which consumption is so important to economic growth. 
   And consumers would have more than psychological motivation to buy, because it is predicted that the rapid rise in consumer prices would abate from the current 4% rate to about 2.5% or 3%. 
   Along with a reduction in consumer prices, the reduced rate of inflation resulting from peace would motivate business to increase investment. Tight money and high interest rates would become easier, and certain industries, like construction, would pick up after a long-term lag. 
   As we all learned in high school civics courses, this country spends a shitload on defense, but only about a third of that goes to Vietnam. U.S. Imperialism has learned a little since the days of the Korean War. It can slip more easily from war to peace -- or possibly from one war to another more subtle one. 
   The major problem, it seems, is how to make a war profitable. Even since the Wall Street Journal came out against the war last spring, it has been evident that this has been an inflationary and unprofitable war and that most (though not all) American businesses want out fast. 

[Two illustrations on right side of page]

Up the IRA
by Shelley Blum
Shelley Blum is a first-year law student who already holds a degree in physics. His column, Revolutions in the Back Room, will be a regular feature of MIDDLE EARTH. (Ed.)

   Easter Week, 1916. For five days, leaders of the Sinn Fein succeeded in holding much of Dublin. From the steps of the Post Office, Their provisional capitol, they proclaimed the Republic of Ireland. They were shot hanged, or imprisoned. 
   Like the Viet Minh, ousted from Hanoi in 1947 by the French, the Sinn Fein (Ourselves Alone) retreated to the countryside and went underground. Their plan to gain independence while Britain was fighting WWI had failed, but the secondary leadership that remained intended to try again. 
   A political buildup led to the election victory in 1918 of the Feinian Irish MP's. They refused to report to Westminster and rather met in Dublin to redeclare Irish Independence. They began building the Irish Republican Army (IRA). The British responded by augmenting their forces and creating the savage "black and tans". These counter-guerilla troops were recruited from ex-soldiers and formed an elite, barbaric police unit. As in Algeria and Vietnam, a Western "civilized" country resorted to terror and torture to maintain colonialism. 
   The British could not cope with the second proclamation of the Republic as they had with the first. Ireland was the scene of ambush and reprisal; acts of terror against government installations and acts of counter-reprisal against the Irish people. Despite the lack of mountains and jungles, popular solidarity allowed the carrying on of guerilla warfare from 1919 to 1922. Britain had responded by partioning Ulster (Northern Ireland) from the free State in December, 1920, and by continuing their attempts to put down the rebellion, most successfully in Ulster. Growing dissent at home, however, finally forced forced some accomadation. A truce was called in July, 1921, and discussions ensued, centered on Irish independence and unity of the island. 
   The Irish negotiators were convinced, much as the Viet Minh were convinced in 1954, that they should take what they could get and postpone the status of Ulster. They returned to the Sinn Fein with the offer of dominion status. The Irish Parliament narrowly adopted their reccommendations, and a disgruntled IRA minority responded with Civil War. The British could not have scripted it better, and perhaps they counted on such division in their plans. By the end of 1922, the compromise faction had won a war that was bloodier, if anything, than the war of national liberation which had preceded it. Minus Ulster, Ireland continued as a dominion until 1937, when total independence was announced. 
   The negotiations and the civil war effectively kept the control of Ulster in British hands, allowing time for consolidation  and regroupment. The talks partitioned a small island and allowed the retention of that part which was governable and the abandonment of that part which was not. It would seem small nations cannot trust any of the NATO powers in negotiations over the terms of deliverance from colonialism. 
   There are still skirmishes along the Ulster-Free State border and acts of terror within the territory of Ulster. Its fate is not yet settled. And in a trial in New York, in 1947, an Irish cop refused to testify against an Israeli running guns to the Mapam guerillas. "God," he said in private to the Irish lawyer for the defendant he had caught red-handed, "I wish we'd had them rifles in the old country back in '19. The British deserve what the jews are ginin' to them.

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Middle Earth page ten The Economics of Peace in Vietnam by Victoria Smith New York (LNS) -- One of the surest guarantees that the War in Vietnam can't last much longer is the growing prospect that peace would be profitable to American business. The war is becoming a burden to the economy, according to the economists. Not only is the war hurting the U.S. balance of payments by about $2 billion annually, but consumer spending and some business investments are falling as the war continues. "Vietnam has been a dark cloud hanging over spending," says economist Tilford Gaines of Manufacturers Hanover Trust Company. "Everyone would feel much more in a buying mood if the war were to end," he adds, putting in a pitch for forced consumption. It's not that peace in Vietnam would bring home millions of dollars for domestic programs. In fact, much of the $28 billion spent in Vietnam yearly would go into other kinds of Defense programs. Gaines predicts that the savings in the first fiscal years after a peace settlement would probably not exceed $4 billion. But an end to the war, economists say, would not bring a serious recession, like the one following the Korean War. Nor would unemployment rise much, since American business needs men with the kinds of skills developed in the Army. (There is a severe shortage in some skilled job areas in this country, according to specialists) Besides, these young men newly returned from Vietnam, will be expected to marry and become consumers, a crucial factor in a period in which consumption is so important to economic growth. And consumers would have more than psychological motivation to buy, because it is predicted that the rapid rise in consumer prices would abate from the current 4% rate to about 2.5% or 3%. Along with a reduction in consumer prices, the reduced rate of inflation resulting from peace would motivate business to increase investment. Tight money and high interest rates would become easier, and certain industries, like construction, would pick up after a long-term lag. As we all learned in high school civics courses, this country spends a shitload on defense, but only about a third of that goes to Vietnam. U.S. Imperialism has learned a little since the days of the Korean War. It can slip more easily from war to peace -- or possibly from one war to another more subtle one. The major problem, it seems, is how to make a war profitable. Even since the Wall Street Journal came out against the war last spring, it has been evident that this has been an inflationary and unprofitable war and that most (though not all) American businesses want out fast. [Two illustrations on right side of page] Up the IRA by Shelley Blum Shelley Blum is a first-year law student who already holds a degree in physics. His column, Revolutions in the Back Room, will be a regular feature of MIDDLE EARTH. (Ed.) Easter Week, 1916. For five days, leaders of the Sinn Fein succeeded in holding much of Dublin. From the steps of the Post Office, Their provisional capitol, they proclaimed the Republic of Ireland. They were shot hanged, or imprisoned. Like the Viet Minh, ousted from Hanoi in 1947 by the French, the Sinn Fein (Ourselves Alone) retreated to the countryside and went underground. Their plan to gain independence while Britain was fighting WWI had failed, but the secondary leadership that remained intended to try again. A political buildup led to the election victory in 1918 of the Feinian Irish MP's. They refused to report to Westminster and rather met in Dublin to redeclare Irish Independence. They began building the Irish Republican Army (IRA). The British responded by augmenting their forces and creating the savage "black and tans". These counter-guerilla troops were recruited from ex-soldiers and formed an elite, barbaric police unit. As in Algeria and Vietnam, a Western "civilized" country resorted to terror and torture to maintain colonialism. The British could not cope with the second proclamation of the Republic as they had with the first. Ireland was the scene of ambush and reprisal; acts of terror against government installations and acts of counter-reprisal against the Irish people. Despite the lack of mountains and jungles, popular solidarity allowed the carrying on of guerilla warfare from 1919 to 1922. Britain had responded by partioning Ulster (Northern Ireland) from the free State in December, 1920, and by continuing their attempts to put down the rebellion, most successfully in Ulster. Growing dissent at home, however, finally forced forced some accomadation. A truce was called in July, 1921, and discussions ensued, centered on Irish independence and unity of the island. The Irish negotiators were convinced, much as the Viet Minh were convinced in 1954, that they should take what they could get and postpone the status of Ulster. They returned to the Sinn Fein with the offer of dominion status. The Irish Parliament narrowly adopted their reccommendations, and a disgruntled IRA minority responded with Civil War. The British could not have scripted it better, and perhaps they counted on such division in their plans. By the end of 1922, the compromise faction had won a war that was bloodier, if anything, than the war of national liberation which had preceded it. Minus Ulster, Ireland continued as a dominion until 1937, when total independence was announced. The negotiations and the civil war effectively kept the control of Ulster in British hands, allowing time for consolidation and regroupment. The talks partitioned a small island and allowed the retention of that part which was governable and the abandonment of that part which was not. It would seem small nations cannot trust any of the NATO powers in negotiations over the terms of deliverance from colonialism. There are still skirmishes along the Ulster-Free State border and acts of terror within the territory of Ulster. Its fate is not yet settled. And in a trial in New York, in 1947, an Irish cop refused to testify against an Israeli running guns to the Mapam guerillas. "God," he said in private to the Irish lawyer for the defendant he had caught red-handed, "I wish we'd had them rifles in the old country back in '19. The British deserve what the jews are ginin' to them.